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Excellent research Donald, I think you’ve nailed it! Thanks for sharing.
After so many experts speaking let me add my humble opinion.
This figure is meant to represent Hyacinthe-Louis-Ernest de Dreux-Nancré, ADC to général de division Gudin de la Sablonnière (yes, the very same Gudin who was killed during the 1812 campaign and whose remains were recently found at Smolensk). The uniform he is wearing is that of an ADC to a divisional general, of light cavalry style. And yes, the sabre should be slightly curved rather than straight, and the red brassard egded gold worn on the left arm and denoting an ADC to a divisional general is missing. And yes, the bastion-shaped lace on the breeches denote rank - three chevrons for a capitaine.
https://www.neustadtgalerie.com/fr/oeuvre/victor-huen-capitaine-de-deux-nancre-aide-de-camp-de-general-de-division-grande-tenue-vienne-1809-612 [his name is Dreux-Nancré, not Deux-Nancré]